The Valley Bubble Breaks

(quirksmode.org)

49 points | by cdrnsf 1 hour ago

15 comments

  • CharlieDigital 51 minutes ago

        > The Valley doesn’t understand how fed up normal people are with AI. This is the first time ever a technological advance is so cordially disliked, and the Valley is not equipped to detect that. It has no experience with being disliked by normal people.
    
    An anecdote from a recent occurrence. We show up for a team offsite. Several leaders presented decks. Of course, AI generated decks. Some of the animation was broken. Many of the read throughs felt like they were the first time folks saw the decks.

    Cannot state how off-putting this was as someone participating in this team activity. The talks I appreciated the most were the ones where people didn't have slides at all and talked off the cuff.

    • fidotron 20 minutes ago
      AI existing has done a lot to expose how many people have always had zero respect for their audience.

      The confusion is this doesn't diminish the utility of AI as a tool by people that do care one bit. It only affects the people whose work is indistinguishable from low effort AI nonsense, while the others will get ever more conspicuously "authentic".

    • saghm 5 minutes ago
      I heard from a former coworker that someone who predated both of us at the company (i.e. had been there over a decade) got fired after asking for clarification about a very obvious contradiction between two (presumably AI written) slides from a new executive at an all-hands meeting.
    • ThePhysicist 42 minutes ago
      Well it is a good indicator of what stuff people do not like to spend time on. Turns out it's making decks, reports and all that. I use AI for building games and a virtual LAN party OS and everything is super polished and looks great (to me), because I spend a ton of time on it and obsess over details, AI is a big accelerator in that venture for me and gives me superpowers.

      But yeah sometimes when I just need to deliver some asset to a customer I use AI to create it and lightly edit it, the result is ok but it's not great.

      I share the disdain for AI built presentations, especially Claude has a signature look that is so tiring. I remember this phase when Office 2016 (?) came out and featured this "smart" diagram editor that let you create these cringe arrows, flowcharts etc. with bullet points, some people really got hooked on that and used it everywhere, the result was as cringeworthy as the AI presentations are. Eventually people lost interest and things got back to normal. AI might be different though.

      That said I also generate presentation decks for my products with Claude using an HTML based workflow with proper print CSS using Weasyprint, where I use my own corporate identity and design practices from the web, the result looks really professional and pleasing (to me), customers also like it a lot. It doesn't really look like AI either as it's just good HTML and CSS with a print stylesheet. So there are ways of using it to make things better, but it also brings out the lazy side of people that don't care so much.

    • strbean 48 minutes ago
      > This is the first time ever a technological advance is so cordially disliked

      I think the early automobile had a huge share of haters as well?

      • CharlieDigital 45 minutes ago
        I can understand both the automobile and electricity because those were legit dangerous and worthy of some caution.
        • daemonologist 20 minutes ago
          Still are (cars at least, kill twice as many people annually as malaria).
        • Analemma_ 27 minutes ago
          How many people do you think there currently are in safety-critical industries who are just vibe coding everything and not reviewing the code, or giving it to agents to review with instructions to just route around whatever quality gates there are? I bet it's a lot more than zero.
          • CharlieDigital 23 minutes ago
            A lot less than you probably think.

            My line of work: I deal with enterprise SaaS companies and I can see first hand that engineers are very slow moving with AI, very cautious, and still believe they need to review small PRs.

            • Analemma_ 18 minutes ago
              I guess we'll just have to see. Personally my bet is on the first incident to cause more than 100 fatalities which can be solidly traced back to vibe coding to happen in the next 12-18 months (possibly it already has, depending on whether you count the school bombing in Iran).
      • akmarinov 47 minutes ago
        Electricity too
    • hijinks 8 minutes ago
      a few days ago i sat through a all hands presentation that they made claude an artifact for it so it was some voice LLM reading.

      It read the slide notes for the at the end of each "slide". He was asked to give the presentation himself and couldn't do it.

    • laserDinosaur 39 minutes ago
      Similar to that I was looking at VPS options recently and Ionos seemed to have some good word of mouth - I go to their site and its COVERED in AI this AI that, AI logos on every single product line they have. Tacky trend chasing is not what I want from a stable long term boring VPS.

      Is seeing that much AI crap being thrown at their product lineup actually appealing to anyone?

      • 1potato 33 minutes ago
        I recently cancelled my service with IONOS. I was just on a basic shared plan, but I found the performance unacceptable. They don’t use cPanel, if that’s important to you. Their upsell attempts are full of dark patterns. When you cancel your account, unless you are very forceful, they want you to CALL them to confirm or they’ll attempt to keep billing you.

        Just one person’s experience, but it wasn’t a positive one.

    • AnimalMuppet 43 minutes ago
      "Read throughs".

      Oh, mercy. Do not read your slide deck to me. I can read it faster than you can read it out loud. While I'm doing that, say something that isn't on the slide.

      • bee_rider 0 minutes ago
        I don’t get the idea of saying one thing while the audience reads something else. It seems like a sure recipe for confusion.

        I usually put almost no text on my presentations. Figures, captions for figures, equations, variable definitions, code.

        The only time I’d put, like, prose on there is if it is a “main idea,” then I’ll do the thing where I read it word-for-word from the slide. But that’s got to be used sparingly enough that it sticks out as a weird moment that the audience is supposed to remember.

      • JKCalhoun 2 minutes ago
        Yeah, I have allow tolerance for bad slide decks (which existed way before LLMs).

        Thankfully, I got some good pointers and coaching from having worked at Apple and having done a number of WWDC (World Wide Developer Conference) talks.

    • spwa4 44 minutes ago
      You see this constantly, but as usual this is management refusing to put in the least amount of effort. AI might enable some of this, whereas they (ab)used team members before, but otherwise, what does it have to do with AI? In fact I doubt most managers can figure out how to make a presentation with AI, and it will still take time so they won't do it even if they figure it out.

      Before, at a certain FANG you definitely know, you had management making presentations they very obviously had never seen before, made by people who weren't at product meetings and so were extremely shallow about any project and had basic facts wrong ... and of course management can't answer questions about the slides.

      I 100% get the complaint. But what does it have to do with AI?

      • CharlieDigital 40 minutes ago
        AI lowers the bar significantly. Just as with kids and essays; it's not the plagiarism or cheating on an essay is new, it's that AI makes it trivially easy to engage in low-value behavior and thus higher incidence.

        In this team? Pre-AI, maybe 10% of the slides would be questionable. Post-AI? 90% of the slides were just "meh", broken animations (they never previewed it), and "uh, let me read that slide".

      • dofm 20 minutes ago
        > You see this constantly, but as usual this is management refusing to put in the least amount of effort.

        We're all managers now. So everyone can be that lazy.

  • mkarliner 29 minutes ago
    "AI can copy, it cannot innovate."

    https://blog.karliner.net/posts/chatgpt-and-the-velcro-test/

    admittedly a bit old now, but...

    • boplicity 1 minute ago
      I'm not sure that's true; AI can (and does) sometimes brute force a variety of combinations, some of which are new and interesting.

      It does beg the question, though: what is creativity?

    • ben_w 1 minute ago
      3.5 years later, LLMs are solving multiple hard maths problems that humans couldn't solve, not even those with a million dollar prize available to whoever did.

      Even if someone wants to deny this counts as "innovation", it sure isn't copying.

  • chao- 38 minutes ago
    >...but did any AI-related stock ever tumble before now?

    Yes. For many days after the DeepSeek R1/V3 release in Jan/Feb 2025.

  • pastureofplenty 11 minutes ago
    Good to see PPK blogging again. I learned JavaScript largely from reading Quirksmode circa 2003.
  • bix6 50 minutes ago
    SV will remain the number one hub because of the amount of money there and its history / culture. NYC and LA are 2nd and 3rd funding wise but it’s like ¼. I do think VC is broadening to other areas but SV remains the Mecca.
  • KaiserPro 56 minutes ago
    I agree the valley is in a bubble, but I wouldn't agree with the self flagellation. That would imply a level of self understanding that would require repentance.

    One of the big issues with silicon valley (or how I see it) is the lack of ability to look out side and ask why something is the way it is, before trying to slap technology on it.

    The smell of money which distorts people's reality to carry on doing something that looks and sounds like a disaster, is too strong.

    • FacZap 49 minutes ago
      Also the "move fast, break things" motto. These people are literally incapable of slowing down to begin with, much less use that time for self-reflection.
    • idle_zealot 45 minutes ago
      > That would imply a level of self understanding that would require repentance. One of the big issues with silicon valley (or how I see it) is the lack of ability to look out side and ask why something is the way it is, before trying to slap technology on it.

      We're talking about adults here, let's not infantilize and remove agency from them. It's not reasonable to treat as an accident the repeated disruption of regulated industries with the "old laws don't apply because I added computers" playbook. Bad behavior absolutely demands repentance and punishment. To say otherwise is a massive moral hazard that guarantees more harm, failing to counter the "smell of money" with reasonable caution.

      • gwerbin 24 minutes ago
        > lack of ability to look out side

        > smell of money

        Seems like an obvious causal pathway to me.

    • xg15 14 minutes ago
      I think it's telling how often even on HN (and linked articles) there is talk about "humans" doing this or that - when it becomes clear that the discussion is not even about everyday Americans or people from other Western countries, let alone the non-Western world - but just WASP people in Tech.

      But sure, let's talk about Humanity.

  • BeetleB 4 minutes ago
    > The Valley doesn’t understand how fed up normal people are with AI.

    I occasionally hang out with normal (non-tech) people. They're either agnostic to it or they love it. None hates it, unless they have some reason to think they're going to lose their job.

    HN is that one place where I routinely hear negative sentiments about LLMs.

  • ThePhysicist 34 minutes ago
    AI is great, it just needs to have its Linux moment. I mostly enjoy using it, I can never imagine going back to doing things manually. Like I can have it fix my computer and reliably automate like 80 % of mundane tasks that I sometimes spent hours on, why would I hate that? The models are already so good for must stuff, I can't remember Claude giving me a wrong answer when debugging something recently, and it is crazy good at solving the most complex issues that would have taken me hours or days to solve. So yeah, maybe the market will crash because people were too greedy and racing each other too much and the markets aren't absorbing what they put out fast enough, but regardless AI is here to stay. A healthy market crash might actually be good to get things back to normal and give people more time to think about the risks and societal issues this stuff creates before we end up wiring it up with everything.
    • za_creature 3 minutes ago
      With the way things have been going recently, I wouldn't be too surprised if it was Linux that had its AI moment any day now.
    • smurf9852 13 minutes ago
      What is a Linux moment?
  • ivolimmen 4 minutes ago
    I think that 'AI will fix that' is the equivalent of 'This year will be the year of Linux on the desktop'
  • dofm 15 minutes ago
    > It has no experience with being disliked by normal people.

    I mean, crypto and NFTs ought to have given them a taste of it. But then perhaps it did, and they are now inured to it, because it's a lot of the same guys, including Sam Altman.

  • applebottomjean 18 minutes ago
    Get rid of the middle class? What middle class?
  • jimbokun 15 minutes ago
    > All the while I acknowledge that there is something there that will change programming — just not as radically as the US-based doomsayers think.

    It has changed programming radically, already. Not sure how much he thinks US-based doomsayers think it will change.

    > AI can copy, it cannot innovate.

    Is this falsifiable? Is there an example of an AI output that the author would agree verified that the AI innovated, if he or she saw it?

  • jatora 48 minutes ago
    > All the while I acknowledge that there is something there that will change programming

    WILL change it? This guy is under a self-inflicted rock.

    • RunSet 0 minutes ago
      In context it appears that by "change" they may have meant "improve".
    • dbalatero 28 minutes ago
      I read it as: "once the dust settles, the capital/debt explodes, and whatever else, we will be left with something there that endures"
  • paganel 19 minutes ago
    > The Valley doesn’t understand how fed up normal people are with AI. This is the first time ever a technological advance is so cordially disliked, and the Valley is not equipped to detect that. It has no experience with being disliked by normal people.

    They did start having that experience in the last 6 or 7 years, give or take (I'd say even earlier than that, 2015-2016-ish), but the money those techies were bringing home was too good so they didn't care, case in point many (most?) of the users on this forum (and its very founder).

    But at this point it looks like these tech people are about to cause a multi-trillion dollar economic implosion that would make September-October 2008 look like a gentle summer-storm in comparison, so curious what the near future will bring to them in terms of public perception. I've said it before, the jocks were right to make fun of the nerds and to keep them under their heels, look what happened when the nerds were let loose.

    Also curious what will happen to this very forum after the upcoming implosion. Will the money still be there to keep this SV-propaganda machine running? Food for thought.

  • magic_hamster 20 minutes ago
    > All the while I acknowledge that there is something there that will change programming — just not as radically as the US-based doomsayers think. AI can copy, it cannot innovate.

    This seems a bit out of touch. The metamorphosis of programming is already done.

    Doing any kind of manual programming in November 2026 is a luxury that most tech workers don't have. Delivery rate has gone up and for any chace to keep up, you have to generate your code. The differentiator now is how you ensure the quality and alignment.

    But the days of typing code are over. It's done. Programming is now a hobby, a luxury, a sport, but no longer a job.