Is The Economist Always Wrong?

(economist.com)

62 points | by nreece 1 hour ago

18 comments

  • ggm 54 minutes ago
    I'd love to know if "the pink" has the same problem because I used to find the editorial very good. As a non-investor, left leaning voter, it interested me that I found much to agree with in "the financial times" while still finding much to disagree with in "the times" and "the daily telegraph" and "the spectator" -as if money was more neutrally stanced on left-vs-right.
    • SanjayMehta 41 minutes ago
      Yes.

      The pink is also wrong more often than not when they're talking about non-European issues.

      When they talk about Europe they lie.

      Subtle difference.

      • ggm 3 minutes ago
        The view amongst the economically literate left (the LSE?) when I was in the UK, was that lying about money to money-makers was counter productive.

        I tend to think this is true. The economist doesn't project into quite the same mindset of outcome, so I still think (despite your polemic) it's less likely the fin randomly lies about things, but I'm prepared to consider it on it's merits if somebody gives me better reasons than what I am afraid is just .. ranting.

  • andsoitis 8 minutes ago
    Prior discussion 70+ comments (2 days ago): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48791799
  • claw-el 54 minutes ago
    The tricky thing about predictions made by public entity or persona is that, the fact that they are making public predictions creates a major influence on the outcome itself. People react to predictions made by them.
    • Spooky23 20 minutes ago
      The thing with the Economist is that they have a style that’s like an erudite version of the old Time magazine — that is stories written to say what the editors want. Except the economist is way more dogmatic.

      I used to read it regularly. I can’t imagine anyone looking to them for predictions, as even a casual reader could probably outline the magazine’s views on most any topic. Let me skim 4-5 recent issues, and I could probably replicate anything they would predict with like 85% accuracy!

      I will say that my favorite part of the magazine was the wacky ads for big shots working for African countries, various UN things, NGOs, etc.

    • CGMthrowaway 39 minutes ago
      A major reason why the new Fed chair is refusing to provide forward guidance, in a major departure from all(?) previous Fed chairs and will likely require textbooks to be rewritten.
      • reenorap 2 minutes ago
        No, only since Bernanke. So it’s very recent and not something that was historically done by Fed chairs.
      • claw-el 32 minutes ago
        Yes, one can see it this way, therefore they don’t want to provide forward guidance. One can also see it another way that ‘their job’ is to purposely use forward guidance to impact direction. Not sure which is the right way.
        • doctorpangloss 10 minutes ago
          imo, its purpose is to be independent, because raising rates (combating inflation) is unpopular. otherwise, its job is pretty simple, it does't take much expertise, gravitas or technology to choose the number or to say no to the president.
      • jjmarr 28 minutes ago
        Alan Greenspan (fed chair from 1987-2006) was famous for deliberately confusing forward guidance. Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are the historical anomalies for clearly communicating their intent.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fedspeak

        Quote from Greenspan himself:

        > As Fed chairman, every time I expressed a view, I added or subtracted 10 basis points from the credit market. That was not helpful. But I nonetheless had to testify before Congress. On questions that were too market-sensitive to answer, 'no comment' was indeed an answer. And so you construct what we used to call Fed-speak. I would hypothetically think of a little plate in front of my eyes, which was the Washington Post, the following morning's headline, and I would catch myself in the middle of a sentence. Then, instead of just stopping, I would continue on resolving the sentence in some obscure way which made it incomprehensible. But nobody was quite sure I wasn't saying something profound when I wasn't. And that became the so-called Fed-speak which I became an expert on over the years. It's a self-protection mechanism ... when you're in an environment where people are shooting questions at you, and you've got to be very careful about the nuances of what you're going to say and what you don't say.

      • VladVladikoff 35 minutes ago
        Strange to eschew the only actual power they have. Interesting times.
    • Mistletoe 31 minutes ago
      I don’t think The Economist has that kind of power. More likely that when they make covers like these every normie feels that way and it’s going the other way soon, as it has exhausted every buyer or seller and it has reached the ends of your earth and your Mom and Dad even feel that way.

      https://www.readtrung.com/p/the-economist-cover-curse-explai...

      • junkaccount 23 minutes ago
        It does not by itself but it is often just siding with a narrative that lot of other media houses and political parties are supporting as well.
      • CursedSilicon 26 minutes ago
        Sorry, but

        ...Normie?

        What does that even mean in this context

        • allthetime 22 minutes ago
          Someone without a deeper understanding of markets who is just reacting superficially to news, headlines, mainstream information etc.
  • latch 1 hour ago
  • diego_sandoval 58 minutes ago
    They're wrong more often than random chance, yes.
  • m348e912 22 minutes ago
    Here is a mirror of the article without a paywall.

    https://archive.is/FziAy

    The Economist is partly owned by the Rothschild dynasty and was chaired by Evelyn de Rothschild for 17 years, so I've always just assumed it is going to tell you whatever would favor the global elite banking class.

    • andsoitis 6 minutes ago
      The Economist has this to say about their ownership structure and editorial independence:

      The Economist is part of The Economist Group, a private company with a special ownership structure designed to preserve editorial independence. Its shareholders date back more than a century, and include great names in British business, such as the Sainsburys, Cadburys and Schroders. Other shareholders today include funds owned by the Agnelli and Rothschild families. Many staff of The Economist Group also own shares, which are privately traded twice a year.

      The company’s constitution does not permit any individual or group to gain a majority shareholding, and no shareholder can exercise more than 20% of voting rights. The editor is appointed by trustees, who are independent of commercial, political and proprietorial influences. This structure ensures that The Economist can take an independent view of the world—free to challenge conventional thinking and concentrations of power. Its role is to inform, not to serve vested interests.

      https://myaccount.economist.com/s/article/Who-owns-The-Econo...

  • 01HNNWZ0MV43FF 7 minutes ago
    They aren't great on transgender topics I hear
  • tedmiston 45 minutes ago
    > Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." It is based on the assumption that if the publishers were confident that the answer was yes, they would have presented it as an assertion; by presenting it as a question, they are not accountable for whether it is correct or not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

    • bryanrasmussen 12 minutes ago
      https://medium.com/luminasticity/does-betteridges-law-still-...

      It seems it may also be used for really embarrassing things that will make powerful people mad if you just state them outright so it is necessary to state it as a question when you know the answer is yes.

      Of course any yes or no question can be answered "no" but Betteridge, as we know, means a factually correct answer, and so there are these edge cases where the question mark is used for slightly different reasons than the law assumes and can be answered "yes".

    • MarkusQ 23 minutes ago
      Which makes the headline quite clever in this case, since people will assume that means they aren't wrong, when in fact it means they aren't _always_ wrong.
  • jdw64 1 hour ago
    I think the question was wrong. The problem is that the important things are wrong and the trivial things are right, which causes confusion.
  • skywhopper 1 hour ago
    Wow. “We asked the wrong question and used the wrong tool to get a questionable answer, and then decided to publish it.” I guess the answer is yes?
  • nnurmanov 31 minutes ago
    We will never know as the article is behind a paywall:)
  • iamanllm 54 minutes ago
    there should be some law where publications have to track their brier scores
    • tccole 32 minutes ago
      I’d be surprised if they knew what a brier score was
  • SanjayMehta 43 minutes ago
    Yes, because they lie all the time.
  • Insanity 49 minutes ago
    Betteridge's law of headlines :)
  • rohitsriram 32 minutes ago
    [flagged]
  • lalitium 1 hour ago
    Please don't put anything with the paywall here.
    • left-struck 53 minutes ago
      Sorry, who are you exactly to give people orders?
      • MarkusQ 21 minutes ago
        "lalitium" -- it says so, right above the text.
      • lalitium 17 minutes ago
        If please helps, happy to add it. In fact I added it.

        When you see the title, you are excited to read, then you're hit with a paywall. Such a bummer.

  • davidw 51 minutes ago
    After subscribing for 15 years or so, I noped out after their "walker" cover. The world has enough "both sides" journalism, and I had thought them somewhat immune from that.
    • robomc 44 minutes ago
      yeah imagine thinking biden was too old and infirm
    • gmadsen 48 minutes ago
      What is “both sides” about that article?
    • akoboldfrying 5 minutes ago
      For me personally, seeing the phrase "both sides" used pejoratively is a red flag telling me I don't need to read any further.

      When people disagree about something, hearing from both sides is important. Can this ideal of openmindedness be cynically abused by strawmanning one side while steelmanning the other? Yes, but in that case the appropriate response is to criticise the specific ways that one or both sides were misrepresented -- which is also the appropriate response to a piece that only presents one side, and does it badly. Muttering about "both sides" never adds anything to an argument. All it does is signal a deep commitment to remaining entrenched in your current position.

    • narism 28 minutes ago
      Just because Fox News crowed about it doesn’t mean it’s bad journalism. Arguably toeing the party line is what resulted in Democrats being in that situation (fielding a weaker candidate against Trump) in the first place.
    • next_xibalba 46 minutes ago
      Wait, what? People were offended by that? It seemed an apt cover in light of the situation.

      For those unaware, the economist ran this [1] image after Biden’s historically disastrous debate in ‘24 (as a result of Biden’s age based senility being on full display after months of party and media complicity).

      [1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/07/04/why-biden-must-...

      • SanjayMehta 40 minutes ago
        I missed that as my subscription ran out in 2017. Hilarious. Would have framed that cover.
    • aaron695 11 minutes ago
      [dead]